The 'FKB Economic Outlook Index' has been published

The March bulletin of the "FKB Economic Outlook Index" (FKB-EGE), developed by the Financial Institutions Association (FKB) in collaboration with Istanbul University, has been released. According to the FKB-EGE March results, monthly inflation expectations declined to 4.17%. The Financial Institutions Association (FKB), which operates to increase the contribution of the non-bank financial sector to the country's economy, has published the March bulletin of the Economic Outlook Index (FKB-EGE). The FKB-EGE, conducted by FKB in collaboration with Istanbul University and covering 124 companies across 5 sectors under its umbrella with the important mission of facilitating access to financing, shows that based on March 2024 survey data, March inflation expectations averaged 4.17%. According to the survey, which identifies the sector's economic expectations and orientations, participants expressed year-end 2024 inflation expectations at 48.23%, while year-end 2025 expectations were recorded at 33.48%. It was noted that the inflation expectations from the previous month's survey results—4.75% for February, 48.25% for year-end 2024, and 33.81% for year-end 2025—all showed declines in March across all three periods. The data showed that monetary policy tightening continues to be reflected in inflation expectations in the medium and medium-to-long term. According to the results of the March 2024 FKB Economic Outlook Survey, participants' GDP growth rate expectations were 3.64% for 2024 and 4.05% for 2025. When compared to the February 2024 survey, where GDP growth expectations were 3.57% for 2024 and 3.77% for the following year, an increase in growth expectations was observed for both years. When compared to the Medium-Term Plan (OVP) forecasts of 4% and 4.5% respectively for the same years and the IMF's forecasts of 3.1% and 3.2% respectively, participants' GDP growth rate expectations were below OVP forecasts and above IMF forecasts. Looking at the FKB-EGE trend, the index, which has followed a volatile course since November 2018 and entered an upward trend from October 2023, continued this upward trend in February following a decline in January. The index, which stood at 98.96 points in November 2023, 99.31 points in December 2023, and 98.97 points in January 2024, increased by 0.20 points compared to the previous month to close at 99.17 points. This upward trend was also observed in the index's sub-components. The Factoring Index increased by 0.10 points from January to reach 100.32. The Financial Leasing Index, another sub-component of the index, continued its upward trend in February. Rising by 0.77 points in January 2024 to 100.79, the Financial Leasing Index increased by 0.35 points in February to reach 101.14 points. The Financing Index, which stood at 95.9 points in January 2024, increased by 0.14 points to reach 96.04 points in February. When the results are evaluated as a whole, sector stakeholders' expectations regarding the economy for the February 2024 period were found to be more positive compared to January 2024. Prof. Dr. Murat Şeker, Research Team Member and Faculty Member at Istanbul University's Faculty of Economics, stated that the rise observed in all sub-indices of the Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index in February indicates the positive course of developments in the sector in terms of economic expectations. Şeker noted that although the Economic Outlook Index has not yet reached the 100 baseline, positive developments that may occur over the months will allow the index to move above 100. Noting that positive views on collection changes in the sector and general developments running higher than negative views demonstrates alignment between real developments and expectations, Şeker also emphasized that the sector's inflation expectations remain at high levels.