Turkey Could Reach Net Zero Emissions by 2050

Turkey Can Reach Net Zero Emissions by 2050 In a report titled "Turkey's Decarbonization Roadmap: Sectoral Cost-Benefit Analysis" to be presented tomorrow at the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) by the Istanbul Policy Center (IPC) of Sabancı University, investment requirements between 2020 and 2030, the most recent data available for Turkey, have been calculated. According to this, Turkey can reach net zero emissions by 2050 with an investment cost of USD 101 billion across the energy, transport, buildings, industry and other production sectors during this period. While total investments required across all sectors are calculated at USD 171 billion, these same investments generate savings of USD 70 billion, particularly as a result of reduced fossil fuel consumption, bringing the net investment requirement to USD 101 billion. As a result of reduced fossil fuel consumption through these investments, healthcare costs are estimated to decline by USD 42.1 billion.

1.35 billion tons of carbon emissions prevented

Through this transition, 1.35 billion tons of carbon emissions are prevented and Turkey's carbon emissions fall 32% below 2018 levels by 2030. In the electricity sector, which stands out as the most critical sector in the necessary transformation to combat the climate crisis, investment requirements through 2030 total USD 36.5 billion, while this figure drops to USD 29 billion thanks to reduced coal and natural gas consumption. In the transport sector, required investment falls from USD 12.5 billion to USD 2 billion as oil consumption declines. The largest cost item emerges in buildings, which include urban renewal. In buildings, investment requirements approaching USD 100 billion are reduced to USD 41 billion as a result of reduced fossil fuel consumption. Requirements in industry and other production sectors remain at approximately USD 21 billion.  

Increases in wind, solar and storage capacity

According to the report, through these investments, 28 gigawatts of additional solar energy capacity and 23 gigawatts of additional wind energy capacity come online in Turkey. Furthermore, these investments prevent new coal-fired thermal power plants from being brought online beyond the 1.32 gigawatts commissioned in the 2020-2023 period and ensure existing coal-fired plants are phased out by 2035. Offshore wind power plants and concentrated solar energy technologies beginning integration into the system from 2026 onward, approximately 5.7 gigawatts of storage technology capacity being commissioned and an increase of 3.35 gigawatts in international interconnection line capacity can be achieved. Ümit Şahin, report editor and Climate Change Studies Coordinator at IPC, noted that Turkey wishes to take action now to reach its net zero target by 2053, stating, "The later we act, the higher the costs we have calculated will become each day. The 10-year transformation cost equals approximately 1% of Turkey's national income."

Şahin, noting that the study addresses all sectors individually and conducts detailed cost analysis, said the following:

"Turkey must ambitiously reduce emissions and reach net zero both to continue trade with Europe and to meet the conditions of the Paris Agreement. For this, Turkey must announce in its updated nationally determined contribution that it will bring emissions to peak as soon as possible and begin reducing them. The net zero scenario we have developed enables Turkey to reduce carbon emissions by 32% by 2030 relative to 2018 levels and prevents 1.35 billion tons of carbon emissions. Considering Turkey's annual greenhouse gas emissions are 520 million tons, this is a significant amount."   Source