Photovoltaic (PV) Panel Waste Volumes-2

PV waste management plans must be adapted to the specific conditions of each country or region. As indicated in case study reports concerning Germany and the United Kingdom, different waste management frameworks have emerged from the national implementation of the EU WEEE Directive. These experiences can also provide various lessons and best practices that other PV markets can benefit from. Rapidly expanding PV markets such as Japan, India and China still lack specific regulations covering PV panel waste. However, they have begun preparing for future waste streams by setting research and development and long-term policy targets. In the absence of adequate waste volumes or country-specific technical expertise, regional markets for waste management and recycling facilities also help maximise value creation from PV waste. Coordination mechanisms between the energy and waste sectors are necessary to support PV end-of-life management. The decommissioning phase of a PV project, which includes dismantling, recycling and disposal, typically involves a diverse range of energy stakeholders. These stakeholders include project developers, construction companies, panel manufacturers and other organisations.

Traditionally, the waste sector has been involved in the matter only in a limited way (for example, through the disposal of PV panel waste in conventional landfill sites and/or through general waste treatment).

However, with increasing waste volumes and related recycling opportunities, waste management companies will become an important actor in PV end-of-life activities. This is already the case in several EU countries. In accordance with the extended producer responsibility principle, producers in these countries provide financing for waste management and hand over the processing and recycling of PV panels to the waste sector. The development of industrial clusters that promote collaboration between energy and waste sector stakeholders can be effective in fostering innovation and contributing to spillover effects. Research and development and skills development are needed to support the creation of additional value from end-of-life PV panels. Significant technological and operational knowledge on PV panel end-of-life management already exists in many countries. This can help address the anticipated large increase in PV panel waste by guiding the development of effective waste management solutions.

Pressure to reduce PV panel prices already encourages more efficient series production and material use, material substitution and the use of new, more efficient technologies.

Additional skills development is needed to further improve this. Research and education programmes are critical not only for reaching technical targets but also for training the next generation of scientists, engineers, technicians, managers and so on. In addition to increasing PV waste streams, specialised training and instruction on PV panel repairs can help extend the life of PV panels showing early failure. PV panel material recycling faces another obstacle: Recovered raw materials often lack the quality required to achieve maximum potential value because recycling processes have not been fully developed. Increased research and development of PV panel end-of-life treatment technologies and techniques can help close this gap and enable improved and efficient recovery of raw materials and components. Technological research and development should be combined with forward-looking technoeconomic and environmental analyses to maximise social benefits, minimise adverse outcomes and avoid unintended consequences. In the coming years, policy makers and PV stakeholders must prepare for rising panel waste and design systems to capitalise on emerging opportunities. Unlocking end-of-life value from PV panels requires targeted actions as outlined above and, most importantly, appropriately designed frameworks and regulations.

When proper conditions are provided, end-of-life industries for solar photovoltaic PV can develop as an important pillar of infrastructure for a sustainable energy future.

The use of PV technology has increased significantly in recent years and reached 222 GW cumulative global installed capacity by the end of 2015. PV offers economical and environmentally friendly electricity generation, but like any technology it ages and ultimately requires decommissioning (including dismantling, recycling and disposal). As PV increasingly becomes a global commodity and to guarantee its sustainable future, stakeholders involved in every step of the product life cycle must implement robust environmental processes and policies, including responsible end-of-life treatment. Regulatory frameworks supporting early development of life cycle management techniques and technologies will promote such processes and policies. This study aims to look ahead of the curve, forecast future PV panel waste volumes in leading solar energy markets and draw lessons from current PV waste management approaches. Another objective is to enable countries to progress more rapidly up the learning curve with technological and regulatory systems addressing PV panel waste later on. For mature and saturated markets such as automobiles in Europe or the United States, the ratio of waste to new products is roughly constant. In contrast, the ratio of waste panels to newly installed panels is currently very low (approximately 43,500 metric tons of waste and an estimated 4 million metric tons of new installation by the end of 2016). This is due to the global PV market being still young and PV systems typically lasting 30 years. The findings in this study indicate that a significant increase in global PV waste is expected to emerge around 2030. Some regions such as the EU will begin producing significant waste volumes earlier due to their broader adoption of PV since the 1990s. The ratio of global PV panel waste to new installations is projected to increase steadily over time, reaching 4 percent in 2030, 14 percent and rising above 80 percent by 2050.

Material recovery end-of-life management in terms of environmental impacts and resource efficiency is preferred over disposal as a means of managing end-of-life PV systems.

When the recycling processes themselves are efficient, recycling not only reduces waste and waste-related emissions but also offers the potential to reduce energy use and emissions related to the production of virgin material. This can be particularly significant for raw materials with high levels of impurity (e.g. semiconductor precursor material) which often require energy-intensive pre-treatment to reach the required purity levels. Recycling is also important for PV for the long-term management of constrained metal resources used in PV. The PV recycling industry is expected to expand significantly within the next 10-15 years. According to the model in this study, annual end-of-life PV panel waste is expected to rise cumulatively above 6,078 million metric tons by 2050. This increasing scale should increase the cost-effectiveness and energy/resource efficiency of recycling while promoting the technical innovations needed to process the diverse range of materials used in rapidly evolving PV technologies. This study emphasises and demonstrates the importance and benefits of developing flexible regulatory frameworks. They provide sustainable PV end-of-life management and economically and environmentally efficient processes and technologies for product and material recovery processes. They promote associated socio-economic benefits such as the recovery of valuable materials and encourage new industries and employment.

As the first region to witness large-scale PV deployment, the EU began promoting sustainable PV life cycle management in the early 2000s. The voluntary extended producer responsibility (EPR) initiative PV CYCLE (PV CYCLE, 2016) is an example.

This led to the development of pilot and industrial-scale recycling facilities and also to the development of the first comprehensive legal framework for PV panels: the 2012 Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) Directive (European Parliament and Council, 2012). Looking at some regions of the world, there is as yet very little specific legislation on the processing of end-of-life PV panels and waste is addressed under each country's legal and regulatory framework for general waste treatment and disposal. The objective should be to communicate existing technological and regulatory knowledge and experience, including best practices related to PV panel end-of-life waste management. The study also identifies opportunities for creating value from end-of-life PV by analysing potential environmental and socio-economic benefits based on new projections of PV panel waste through 2050. PV panel waste streams will increase along with global PV deployment. Potential PV panel waste streams for the period through 2050 will also be examined in subsequent issues of the study. As outlined in Figure 1, a three-stage approach is used to measure PV panel waste over time. First, it analyses trends from 2010 to 2050 and future global solar PV growth rates, which is the main input for waste volume estimation. [caption id="attachment_104190" align="aligncenter"] Figure 1. PV panel waste approach[/caption]

Global Solar PV Growth

In 2015, renewable energy generation capacity increased by a record 8.3 percent, representing the highest annual growth rate, or 152 GW. The global solar PV capacity added in 2015 accounted for 47 GW of this increase, rising from 175 GW in 2014 to 222 GW by the end of 2015. A large portion of these new installations took place in non-traditional PV markets and reinforced the shift in major PV players. Traditional PV markets such as Europe and North America grew by 5.2 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively, in 2015. In contrast, Latin America and the Caribbean grew by 14.5 percent and Asia by 12.4 percent. Asia alone witnessed a 50 percent increase in solar PV capacity in 2015, with 15 GW of new PV capacity in China and a further 10 GW of PV installed in Japan.

Today, the leading global PV leaders include China (43 GW cumulative installed capacity), Germany (40 GW), Japan (33 GW) and the United States (25 GW).

To account for current and future waste streams for solar PV, global PV growth rates have been projected through 2050. These are based on results obtained from earlier studies on PV projections by both IRENA and IEA. For 2030 projections, IRENA's roadmap for doubling the global renewable energy share has been used. For 2030-2050, projections are based on the IEA's Technology Roadmap on Solar Photovoltaic Energy. As shown in Figure 2, global cumulative PV deployment has accelerated since 2010 and grown exponentially, expected to reach 1,632 GW in 2030 and approximately 4,512 GW in 2050. [caption id="attachment_104191" align="aligncenter"] Figure 2. Cumulative PV capacity[/caption]   In some selected countries, individual growth rates may be adjusted higher or lower due to anticipated political and economic uncertainties. To extend the model projection to 2050, more conservative growth forecasts with an annual growth rate of approximately 2.5 percent for 2030-2050 were assumed. This extrapolation was matched with the IEA's PV Technology Roadmap estimate. Final forecasts for global PV growth through 2050 are shown in Table 1 and will be used in the next article to model global waste streams. Wishing you a pleasant summer holiday and good health...     Cemil Koyunoğlu Yalova University Faculty of Engineering Department of Energy Systems Engineering