Global Trade's First Quarter Recovers on Asian Exports

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released its report on global trade data for the first quarter of 2021. According to the report, global trade experienced a record recovery in the first quarter, rising by 10 percent. The report emphasized that global merchandise trade led the recovery, expanding by 4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the previous quarter. It noted that East Asian economies' early success in reducing the spread of Covid-19 enabled faster economic recovery and allowed them to benefit from global demand for Covid-19-related products. The report stated that "global trade in Covid-19-related products such as masks, ventilators, disinfectants and vaccine materials remained strong in the first quarter." The report stressed that the value of merchandise trade in the first quarter of 2021 was higher than pre-pandemic levels, while global services trade remained significantly below average. The UNCTAD report emphasized that the recovery in global trade in the first quarter was "uneven," noting this was more pronounced in developing countries. The report noted that trade in most major economies still remained below 2019 average levels, stating that China, India and South Africa were in a relatively better position than other major economies in the first quarter of 2021. According to the report, China, known as the place where Covid-19 first emerged globally, recorded strong export growth compared to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, exports from Russia remained well below 2019 average levels. The report noted that UNCTAD expects the recovery in global trade to accelerate and continue in the second half of 2021. UNCTAD estimated that the value of global merchandise and services trade will reach 6.6 trillion dollars in the second quarter of 2021. In its report, UNCTAD projected that global merchandise trade in 2021 would be approximately 16 percent higher than the lowest point in 2020, while emphasizing that this positive forecast depends largely on the reduction of Covid-19 restrictions and supportive macroeconomic and financial conditions. Source: AA