September Average Temperature Expected to Be Above Normal

Prof. Dr. Levent Kurnaz stated that September temperatures in Turkey will be above normal due to El Niño effects, and that record-high temperatures measured globally this year will be significantly exceeded in 2024. Kurnaz noted that the El Niño effect first became visible in the western Pacific Ocean in Japan, China, Taiwan and Australia, saying "It then appears on the US side, subsequently moves to the Atlantic where it shows up first in the west and then in the east, and gradually spreads across the entire world. This global spread takes approximately 3-4 months."

Prof. Dr. Kurnaz continued as follows;

"The official start of El Niño is May. We have begun to see its effects recently, which we understand more clearly from temperature readings. In Turkey, the end of July and the first week of August are when summer heat reaches its peak, after which cooling begins. This September may pass considerably warmer than normal. Looking at Istanbul, September temperatures are normally expected to be 23-24 degrees Celsius, but we will likely experience a slightly warmer September, with temperatures in the 25-26 degree range. One benefit of El Niño for Turkey is that it will bring precipitation, and we hope we will not experience the drought we had last year." Kurnaz said they expect precipitation to increase somewhat in the region including Turkey until next summer, but do not expect snow in Istanbul in January because air temperatures may not drop enough for snowfall.  

Daily temperature records

Recalling that the highest average global temperature recorded so far was measured in 2016, Kurnaz stated: "Since the beginning of the year, if we were to ask this question for each day—'In which year was the highest temperature recorded for this particular date?'—we are measuring record temperatures with increasingly frequency this year. Whatever day it is, that day's temperature is among the highest temperatures ever recorded. This will likely continue through the end of the year, and with four months remaining, we expect that the vast majority of those 120 days will set temperature records. This means that when we look at all the days of this year, on at least half the days, we have broken the highest temperature record. We expect significantly higher temperatures in 2024, with nearly every day being a record temperature."

Effects of climate change

Noting that the warming currently observed globally stems significantly from climate change, Kurnaz noted that cooler-than-normal Pacific Ocean water temperatures over the past three years have somewhat masked the effects of global warming. Kurnaz stated, "People assume that life will continue as it has progressed over the past 100 years. Outside the Panama Canal, countless ships are currently waiting because there is not enough water to pass ships through in both directions. As a result, all supply chains worldwide are disrupted, and traffic through that canal for food trade has come to a standstill. This is having a terribly severe impact on food prices, particularly in Asia." Pointing out that food prices worldwide are rising daily regardless of climate change, Kurnaz warned that on top of this, the effects of drought and climate change will compound, and access to food will become the most critical issue.

The 1.5-degree target

Commenting that the 1.5-degree threshold established to limit global temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels will certainly be exceeded this year or next, Kurnaz said, "By around the 2040s, we will likely have exceeded 2 degrees. We will exceed it this year and next year too. If El Niño ends in 2025 and transitions to La Niña, we may drop below 1.5 degrees. If 1.5 degrees is exceeded continuously each year, if we never stay below 1.5 degrees, then we can truly say the threshold has been surpassed." Kurnaz concluded with these words: "Climate change is not taken seriously, and daily life continues. Only when disasters compound and people are directly affected will questioning begin."   Source