Photovoltaic (PV) Panel Waste Volumes-5

This article presents detailed PV panel waste projections by selected countries from 2016 to 2050. Countries were selected based on their regional leadership in terms of PV distribution and expected growth. Projections were modeled using the same Weibull function parameters as the global estimates in the previous section. Projected waste volumes of PV panels in individual countries are based on current and future annual installations and input data available for each country. Historical cumulative installed PV capacity in each country is explained through simple interpolation, along with future projections towards 2030. Modeled results of estimated cumulative waste volumes of end-of-life PV panels by country (t) are presented in Table 1. [caption id="attachment_124647" align="aligncenter"] Table 1. Estimated cumulative waste volumes of end-of-life PV panels (t)[/caption]

PV Panel Waste Projections Through 2030

Modeled results show that by 2030, the highest expected PV panel waste flows, depending on the scenario, will be in Asia, accumulating up to 3.5 million tonnes. Regional Asian leaders in renewable energy distribution will therefore experience the highest waste streams. For example, China will have an installed PV capacity of 420 GW by 2030 and could accumulate between 200,000 tonnes and 1.5 million tonnes of waste in that same year. Japan and India follow with estimates of between 200,000 tonnes and 1 million tonnes and 50,000 to 325,000 tonnes, respectively, as cumulative PV waste through 2030. Europe is expected to present the second largest PV waste market with estimated waste of up to 3 million tonnes by 2030. Germany, with anticipated PV capacity of 75 GW, is estimated to face between 400,000 and 1 million tonnes of PV panel waste by 2030. Future important PV waste markets are expected to include Italy and France. With expected cumulative 240 GW in installed PV through 2030, the United States will lead in total installed PV capacity in North America. By that time, it is projected to generate between 170,000 and 1 million tonnes of waste. Countries such as Canada (up to 80,000 tonnes) and Mexico (up to 30,000 tonnes) will also experience increasing PV waste streams by 2030. Africa and Latin America are also estimated to see increasing PV waste volumes through 2030. South Africa (8,500 to 80,000 tonnes by 2030) and Brazil (2,500 to 8,500 tonnes by 2030) will be regional leaders in this respect. Other important PV waste markets through 2030 will include Republic of Korea with cumulative waste of 25,000 to 150,000 tonnes and Australia with 30,000 to 145,000 tonnes.

Waste Volume Growth from 2030 to 2050

Given the global increase in PV distribution since 2010 and average service life and failure rates for panels, it is certain that waste volumes will increase more rapidly after 2030. By 2030, the top three PV panel waste countries are expected to include China, Germany, and Japan. By 2050, the picture changes somewhat. By that time, China is estimated to still accumulate the largest quantity of waste (13.5 to 20 million tonnes). However, Germany was overtaken by the United States (7.5 to 10 million tonnes), followed by Japan (6.5 to 7.5 million tonnes) and India surpassing it (4.4 to 7.5 million tonnes). Regular loss and early loss waste projections by the top five countries in 2030 and 2050 are shown in Figure 1. The analysis presented in this section develops quantitative estimates for PV panel waste streams at country and regional levels and on a global scale through 2050. Likewise, at scale, PV panels and thus their waste differ in terms of composition and regulatory classification, which will be discussed in the next section. [caption id="attachment_124648" align="aligncenter"] Figure 1. Estimated cumulative waste volumes of end-of-life PV panels by the top five countries by 2050 with early loss scenario (top) and regular loss scenario (bottom)[/caption] Cemil Koyunoğlu - Faculty of Engineering / Department of Energy Systems Engineering / Yalova University