Photovoltaic (PV) Panel Waste Volumes-1

Solar photovoltaic (PV) use has grown at unprecedented rates since the early 2000s. As the global PV market has expanded, so too has the volume of decommissioned PV panels, with large quantities of annual "end-of-life technology products" forecast to begin in the early 2030s. Growing volumes of end-of-life PV panels present a new environmental challenge while simultaneously offering unprecedented opportunities to pursue value creation and new economic pathways. This study, based on data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA-PVPS), projects PV panel waste volumes through 2050. After approximately 30 years of useful life, PV panels could unlock an estimated stock of 78 million tonnes of raw materials and other valuable components globally by 2050. If fully recovered and returned to the economy, the value of recovered materials could exceed USD 15 billion. Global installed PV capacity reached 222 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2015 and is expected to rise to 4,500 GW by 2050. By then, projections indicate China at 1,731 GW, India at 600 GW with particularly high cumulative deployment rates, the United States (US) at 600 GW, Japan at 350 GW, and Germany at 110 GW. As the global PV market grows, so will the volume of decommissioned PV panels. By the end of 2016, accumulated global PV waste streams were expected to reach 43,500-250,000 metric tonnes. This represents 0.1-0.6 percent of the cumulative mass of all installed panels (4 million metric tonnes). Meanwhile, PV waste streams can only continue to increase. Considering an average 30-year panel lifespan, large quantities of annual waste are forecast to begin in the early 2030s. These will be equivalent to 4 percent of installed PV panels that year, with waste quantities in the 2050s (5.5-6 million tonnes) nearly matching the mass found in new installations (6.7 million tonnes). Growing volumes of PV panel waste present a new environmental challenge while simultaneously offering unprecedented opportunities to pursue value creation and new economic pathways. These include the recovery of raw materials and extension of solar PV lifespan, as well as the emergence of related industries. Sectors such as PV recycling are important in the world's transition to an economically sustainable and increasingly renewable energy-based future. To unlock the benefits of such industries, institutional groundwork must be prepared to meet the anticipated increase in panel waste.

Global annual electrical and electronic waste (e-waste) reached 41.8 million metric tonnes in 2014. That same year, annual global PV panel waste was 1,000 times smaller. By 2050, annually added PV panel waste could exceed one-tenth of the record global e-waste added in 2014.

As the analysis presented in this study demonstrates, challenges and experiences related to e-waste management can be transformed into opportunities for future PV panel waste management. This study adapts the first global projections for future PV panel waste volumes to 2050. There are two scenarios for global PV panel waste volumes by 2050. • Regular Loss: Assumes a 30-year lifespan for solar panels without premature degradation; • Early Loss: Accounts for "infant," "mid-life," and "wear-out" failures occurring before the 30-year lifespan. [caption id="attachment_102733" align="aligncenter"] Figure 1. Global PV panel waste projection outlook 2016-2050[/caption]   Waste management regulations established by international organisations require various policy actions to address the challenges ahead by enabling adaptation to the needs and conditions of each region or country. Countries with the most ambitious PV targets are expected to account for the largest shares of future global PV waste. By 2030, the first three countries for cumulative projected PV waste are expected to be China, Germany, and Japan. By the end of 2050, China is estimated to still accumulate the largest quantity of waste; however, Germany will be overtaken by the United States (US). Following that is Japan, with India in fifth place. [caption id="attachment_102734" align="aligncenter"] Figure 2. Total waste volumes from the top five countries due to end-of-life PV panels by 2050[/caption]   Currently, only the European Union (EU) has adopted PV-specific waste regulations. Most countries worldwide classify PV panels as general or industrial waste.

In countries such as Japan or the US, in limited circumstances, general waste regulations may include testing panels for hazardous substance content as well as prescribing or prohibiting certain shipping, processing, recycling, and disposal pathways.

However, the EU has pioneered PV-specific electronic waste (e-waste) regulations that encompass collection, recovery, and recycling targets for PV. Based on the extended producer responsibility principle, the EU Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) Directive requires all manufacturers supplying PV panels to the EU market (wherever they are located) to finance PV collection and recycling costs at end-of-life. Panels have been placed on the European market. The EU's experience in developing its regulatory framework can provide valuable lessons to help other countries develop locally appropriate approaches. End-of-life management can become an important component of the PV value chain. As highlighted by the report's findings, recycling end-of-life PV panels can unlock a large stock of raw materials and other valuable components.

Recovered materials reinjected into the economy can serve the production of new PV panels or be sold to global commodity markets, thereby enhancing the security of future raw material supply.

Preliminary estimates show that raw materials technically recoverable from PV panels could yield a value of up to USD 450 million cumulatively by 2030 (2016 figures). This is equivalent to the quantity of raw materials needed to currently produce approximately 60 million new panels or 18 GW of power generation capacity. By 2050, the recoverable value could exceed USD 15 billion cumulatively, equivalent to 2 billion panels or 630 GW.   [caption id="attachment_102736" align="aligncenter"] Figure 4. Preferred options for PV waste management[/caption]   End-of-life management for PV panels will spawn new industries, support the creation of significant economic value, and be consistent with a global transition toward sustainable long-term development. New industries arising from global PV recycling can provide employment opportunities in both the public and private sectors. In the public sector, employment can be created in public administration entities responsible for waste management, such as municipalities and public waste facilities, as well as in public research institutions.

Solar PV manufacturers and specialised waste management companies can be the primary employment beneficiaries in the private sector. Opportunities may emerge in developing or transition economies where informal sectors typically dominate waste collection and recycling services.

Here, PV waste management systems can create additional employment, particularly in repair/reuse and recycling/treatment industries, while promoting better overall PV waste management practices. PV end-of-life management presents opportunities across all three approaches to sustainable waste management: Reduction, reuse, recycling. As research and development (R&D) and technological advances continue with a maturing industry, panels are expected to require less raw material in their composition. Today, two-thirds of PV panels produced worldwide are crystalline silicon (c-Si). These typically consist of more than 90 percent glass, polymer, and aluminium, classified as non-hazardous waste. However, these same panels also contain hazardous substances such as traces of silver, tin, and lead. Thin-film panels, by comparison, consist of approximately 2 percent more glass, polymer, and aluminium in non-hazardous waste, combined with approximately 2 percent copper and zinc (potentially hazardous) and semiconductors or other hazardous substances. These include indium, gallium, selenium, cadmium, tellurium, and lead. Hazardous substances typically require rigorous handling requirements with specific classifications depending on jurisdiction. By 2030, given current trends in R&D and panel efficiency, raw material inputs for both c-Si and thin-film technologies could be significantly reduced. This will reduce the use of hazardous and rare materials in the production process and consequently increase the recyclability of end-of-life panels and their resource recovery potential.

Rapid global PV growth is expected to create a robust secondary market for panel components and materials. Failures occurring in the early stages of a panel's lifespan present opportunities for repair and reuse.

Repaired PV panels can be sold in the global market at discounted market prices. Even partially repaired panels or components may find willing buyers in the second-hand market. This secondary market presents a significant opportunity for buyers in countries with limited financial resources who still wish to enter the solar PV sector. As current PV installations reach end-of-life decommissioning stages, recycling and material recovery will be preferred over panel disposal. The emerging PV recycling industry typically processes end-of-life PV panels through separate batch operations at existing general recycling facilities. This allows recovery of major components. Examples include glass, aluminium, and copper from c-Si panels, which can be recovered with cumulative yields exceeding 85 percent of total panel mass. In the long term, dedicated panel recycling facilities can expand processing capacity and maximise revenues through better output quality and ability to recover a greater share of tangible materials. PV-specific panel recycling technologies have been researched and applied to some extent over the past decade. It is important to learn from past, ongoing, and future research to develop specialised, cost-effective recycling facilities capable of material recovery to guide the development of effective waste management solutions. However, technical and regulatory systems must be established to ensure PV panel waste streams are large enough to guarantee profitable operations. Industry, governments, and other stakeholders must prepare for the anticipated waste volumes from solar PV panels in three main ways: Sustainable end-of-life management policies for PV panels adopting PV-specific waste regulations can be supported by an effective regulatory framework together with the institutions required to implement it.

Addressing the growth of PV waste and ensuring associated value creation will not be easy without legally binding end-of-life standards specific to PV panels.

Development of PV-specific collection and recycling regulations, including recycling and treatment standards for PV panels, will be critical to addressing increasing waste volumes consistently, efficiently, and profitably. Expanding waste management infrastructure with PV waste management schemes must be adapted to each country's or region's unique conditions. As case studies involving Germany and the United Kingdom have shown, different waste management frameworks have emerged from national implementation of the EU WEEE Directive. These experiences can provide various lessons and best practices that other PV markets can benefit from. Rapidly growing PV markets such as Japan, India, and China still lack specialised regulations covering PV panel waste. However, they have begun preparing for future waste streams through R&D and establishment of long-term policy objectives. Regional markets for waste management and recycling facilities can also help maximise value creation from PV waste when sufficient waste volumes or country-specific technical knowledge base do not exist. Coordination mechanisms between the energy and waste sectors are essential to support PV end-of-life management. A diverse range of energy stakeholders typically participate in the decommissioning phase of a PV project, which includes dismantling, recycling, and disposal services.

These stakeholders include project developers, construction companies, panel manufacturers, and others. Traditionally, the waste sector has been involved only to a limited extent (for example, through the regular disposal of PV panel waste at landfill sites and/or through general waste treatment).

However, with increasing waste volumes and associated recycling opportunities, waste management companies will become important players in PV end-of-life activities. This is already the case in some EU countries. In accordance with the extended producer responsibility principle, manufacturers in these countries provide financing for waste management and delegate the processing and recycling of PV panels to the waste sector. Development of industrial clusters that promote cooperation between energy and waste sector stakeholders can be effective in spurring innovation and contributing to spillover effects. Supporting continued innovation to create additional value from end-of-life PV panels requires R&D and skills development. Significant technological and operational knowledge regarding PV panel end-of-life management already exists in many countries. This can guide the development of effective waste management solutions by helping address the anticipated large increase in PV panel waste. Pressure to reduce PV panel costs is driving more efficient mass production and material use, material substitution, and deployment of new, high-efficiency technologies. Additional skills development will be needed to drive further improvements.

Research and educational programmes are critical not only to achieving technical objectives but also to training the next generation of scientists, engineers, technicians, managers, and others.

These roles will require developing the technical, regulatory, logistical, and management systems needed to maximise extracted value. Growing PV waste streams also benefit from specialised training and instruction related to PV panel repairs, which can help extend the lifespan of PV panels showing early failure. Material recycling for PV panels faces another obstacle: recovered raw materials often lack the quality needed to achieve maximum potential value because recycling processes have not been fully developed. Increased R&D for end-of-life PV panel treatment technologies and techniques can help close this gap and enable improved and efficient recovery of raw materials and components. Most importantly, technological R&D must be combined with advanced technology-economic and environmental analyses to maximise societal returns, minimise adverse outcomes, and avoid unintended consequences. In the coming years, policymakers and PV stakeholders must prepare for the rise in panel waste and design systems to capitalise on emerging opportunities. Unlocking end-of-life value from PV panels requires targeted actions such as those outlined above and, importantly, appropriately designed frameworks and regulations. When the right conditions are provided, end-of-life industries for solar PV can develop as an important pillar of infrastructure for a sustainable energy future. Cemil Koyunoğlu / Yalova University - Faculty of Engineering - Department of Energy Systems Engineering