Photovoltaic (PV) Panel Waste Volumes-5

Turkchem 14 Jul 2021 40 3 dk okuma

TURKCHEM

token_budget>200000 This article describes PV panel waste evaluations across select countries from 2016 to 2050. Country assessments depend on their position as regional leaders in PV distribution and advancement. Projections use Weibull function inputs aligned with global historical trend analysis. Anticipated PV panel waste in participating countries is based on current and near-future annual installations and parameters specific to each nation. Historical cumulative PV capacity in each country is derived through simple interpolation, with future projections through 2030.

Introduction

Country-specific assessments of cumulative end-of-life PV panel waste volumes are presented in Table 1 (tonnes).

PV Panel Waste Projections for 2030

The analysis indicates that the highest PV panel waste streams projected by 2030 are in Asia, reaching up to 3.5 million tonnes, depending on the scenario. Regional Asian leaders in renewable energy distribution will thus experience the largest waste streams. For example, China will have an installed PV capacity of 420 GW in 2030 and is expected to accumulate between 200,000 tonnes and 1.5 million tonnes of waste by that year. This is followed by Japan and India, with projections of between 200,000 tonnes and 1 million tonnes and 50,000–325,000 tonnes, respectively, in total PV waste by 2030. Europe is projected to represent the second-largest PV waste market by 2030, with an estimated volume of up to 3 million tonnes. Germany, which is projected to have 75 GW of PV capacity, is expected to face between 400,000 and 1 million tonnes of PV panel waste by 2030. Other significant future PV waste markets are expected to include Italy and France. With a total 240 GW of installed PV projected by 2030, the US will lead in terms of total installed PV capacity in North America. It is projected to generate between 170,000 and 1 million tonnes of waste by that time. Countries like Canada (up to 80,000 tonnes) and Mexico (up to 30,000 tonnes) will also see increased PV waste streams by 2030. By 2030, Africa and Latin America are also projected to experience rising PV waste volumes. South Africa (8,500–80,000 tonnes by 2030) and Brazil (2,500–8,500 tonnes by 2030) will be regional leaders in this regard. Other key PV waste markets by 2030 will include the Republic of Korea with 25,000–150,000 tonnes of cumulative waste and Australia with 30,000–145,000 tonnes.

Waste Volume Growth in 2030–2050

Given the overall expansion in PV deployment since 2010 and the expected lifetime and failure rates for panels, it is certain that waste volumes will increase more rapidly after 2030. In 2030, the top three PV panel waste countries are expected to be China, Germany, and Japan. By 2050, this ranking shifts slightly. By then, China is still projected to have accumulated the largest quantity of waste (13.5–20 million tonnes). However, Germany is surpassed by the US (7.5–10 million tonnes), followed by Japan (6.5–7.5 million tonnes) and India (4.4–7.5 million tonnes). Normal loss and early loss waste projections for the top five countries in 2030 and 2050 are shown in Figure 1. The analysis presented here provides quantitative projections for PV panel waste streams by country and region by 2050 and globally. At the same time, PV panels and thus their waste vary in composition and regulatory jurisdiction, which will be discussed in the following section. [caption id="attachment_126430" align="aligncenter"] Figure 1. Projected cumulative waste volumes of end-of-life PV panels for the top five countries by 2050 with early loss scenario (top) and normal loss scenario (bottom)[/caption] [caption id="attachment_126432" align="alignnone"] Cemil Koyunoğlu Faculty of Engineering, Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Yalova University[/caption]