Flour Industry Prepares to Close the Year with Another Championship

Turkey, world wheat export champion for 10 years running, has revised its year-end export target to 3.5 million tonnes. Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Eurasia Chairman of the International Association of Flour Millers and Cereal Trade (IAOM), stated that they expect to close the year as champions again and that lifting the wheat import ban on 15 October will drive increases in flour exports.

The sector, which in 2023 achieved 3.663 million tonnes of flour exports and has been the world's flour export champion for 10 consecutive years—setting a record for the highest flour exports in world history—has revised its year-end export target to 3.5 million tonnes.

In the first half of the year the sector had set a target of 4 million tonnes of flour exports for year-end, but with the wheat import ban in place and the resulting decline in flour exports, it has refocused on 3.5 million tonnes of exports for year-end.

Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, IAOM Eurasia Chairman, stating that they will close the year as champions again, said: "We had a good six-month period with the arrival of the domestic harvest in May. With a wheat harvest of 21 million tonnes according to TÜİK estimates and the implementation of the wheat import ban, we began to see declines in flour export figures.

In August we saw a 40% decline compared to the same month last year, and a 2% decline compared to the January-August period of last year. The measure will remain in place until 15 October. With the lifting of the ban on 15 October, we are targeting to turn around the decline we have experienced and close the year at 3.5 million tonnes," he said.

Pointing out that the three largest markets experienced market losses in Iraq, Yemen and Sudan during the three-month period in which the import ban was in effect, Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy said: "Looking at wheat prices, prices in Turkey are 35-40% higher than the world market. This weakens our competitiveness. With the lifting of the ban after 15 October, exporters can be supplied with wheat at world prices, regaining competitiveness and moving into export growth. In this way we can rapidly recover lost markets.

If the ban continues, it could take us several years to regain the markets we have lost. However, this measure has been applied in previous years as well. That is, we anticipate the ban will be lifted after 15 October," he explained.

Rival countries gaining strength

Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, IAOM Eurasia Chairman, adding that Turkey is the clear world export champion, said: "The second largest exporter in the world is Kazakhstan, but it is not our competitor. Because it only exports to neighbouring countries. Lithuania, Estonia, Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia are the actual rival countries.

Black Sea countries are increasing their wheat production and if they develop their industries they could become serious competitors. Although the Ukraine-Russia war has somewhat eliminated this possibility, we are observing some movement in Russia. Egypt's logistical advantage also allows it to rapidly reach markets like Sudan and Yemen where we are strong," he said.

IAOM Eurasia to convene in Baku under COP29

Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, noting that the climate crisis is one of the most discussed issues in the world and Turkey, and that the climate crisis directly triggers food prices, said: "Food and grain prices are currently at pre-pandemic levels.

Our country also had a good season. TÜİK had initially expected 21 million tonnes of wheat but will likely revise this to 20 million tonnes, which is in line with Turkey's average figure. Climate change has been on the world's agenda for 20 years and is now part of our lives. According to meteorological data, since January temperatures have been 3.8 degrees Celsius above average.

Central Anatolia, the heart of grain production, experienced a dry season. Rainfall was insufficient in southeastern Anatolia and the Marmara region. Temperature determines the fate of agriculture," he said, while drawing attention to developments in seeds, proper water resource management, smart agriculture applications and increased yields through artificial intelligence.

To address global climate change, sustainability in food and the food supply chain, the IAOM is bringing the sector together at the "3rd IAOM Eurasia Conference and Exhibition" in Baku, Azerbaijan between 23-25 September. The choice of Baku as the venue this time is largely because Baku is hosting this year's 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29).