A Brief Look at Corona

KPMG Turkey prepared a 'Sector Outlook 2020 – Pharmaceutical Report' in which we assessed the impact of COVID-19, which has shaken the world, on the economy and the pharmaceutical sector. Technically resembling the SARS virus that emerged in 2002 at 80-90%, COVID-19 is considered a new version of severe acute respiratory syndrome. More contagious than SARS and MERS, which occurred in 2012, the virus can spread from person to person through respiration. Moreover, although similar symptoms are observed during the disease phase, because symptom severity varies from person to person, those who experience the disease mildly not seeking hospital care further increases its transmissibility.

We can summarise the notable points in the report regarding COVID-19 as follows:

• Due to its contagiousness, the spread rate of the virus is much higher than MERS and SARS. It took MERS 2.5 years to infect one thousand people. This period was 130 days for SARS. COVID-19 exceeded the same threshold in just 48 days.
• As of the report date, over 80,000 cases were recorded in China, the epicentre of the virus. The coefficient known as the 'basic reproduction number' for the virus is thought to be between 1.4 and 2.5. This indicates that each person carrying the virus can transmit it to an average of 1 to 3 people.
• The fatality rate of the virus is much lower compared to MERS and SARS. Of every 50 people affected by the virus, the number of deaths was 17 for MERS, 5 for SARS, while 1 for COVID-19. This figure points to a mortality rate slightly above 2%.
• Phase-3 Clinical Trial process for COVID-19 treatment is expected to be completed by end of April. While vaccine development efforts enter the clinical trial phase on one hand, on the other hand methods that can manage the disease progression or at least treat its symptoms continue to be applied.
• Giants in the pharmaceutical sector are also mobilised to find a cure for COVID-19. While Moderna and Johnson&Johnson work on prophylactic vaccines, GlaxoSmithKline, one of the world's largest vaccine manufacturers, announced it would open its new vaccine production technology to other companies' use.
• Despite all efforts, a vaccine is not expected to be put into use in the short term.